![]() Firstly, Plug Power should benefit from positive operating leverage as its revenue grows. But there are two key factors supporting an improvement in profitability for PLUG going forward. On the flip side, PLUG's Q4 2021 GAAP net loss per share of -$0.33 was much wider than the market consensus' bottom line forecast of -$0.11 per share. PLUG noted in the company's Q4 2021 shareholder letter that it "won 16 (electrolyzer) projects in 13 countries to date". Separately, I noted in my prior January 2022 update for Plug Power that "there is a very good chance that PLUG's revenue could surprise on the upside this year (2022), and the key factor is electrolyzer sales." It is encouraging that electrolyzer sales contributed more than 6% of Plug Power's Q4 2021 revenue. This brings PLUG another step closer to achieving its 2025 target of delivering a $3 billion top line. The midpoint of its 2022 top line guidance of $900-$925 million was close to +1% higher than the sell-side's consensus sales estimate (prior to Q4 results release) of $906 million as per S&P Capital IQ. The company generated revenue of $502 million for full-year fiscal 2021. PLUG's fourth-quarter top line came in +3% better than what Wall Street analysts were expecting. Plug Power's revenue expanded by +13% QoQ from $144 million in Q3 2021 to $162 million in the most recent quarter, as indicated in the company's Q4 2021 shareholder letter. PLUG Stock Key MetricsĪs a start, I review the key metrics associated with PLUG's most recent quarterly financial results. As such, I maintain my Buy rating for PLUG. This is because I deem the company's 2025 management guidance and 2026 consensus forecasts to be reasonable based on what I see from the company's current progress in various business areas. In the next five years, I expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability for PLUG. In the current article, I take a longer-term view and assess where I see Plug Power in five years' time, on top of reviewing recent metrics and highlighting near-term catalysts. I touched on the 2022 outlook for PLUG in my earlier article written on January 14, 2022. I continue to assign a Buy rating to Plug Power Inc. 9, the early scale up stages for hydrogen powered cars and trucks could be just a few years away.JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images Elevator Pitch But, as InvestorPlace’s Lou Carlozo wrote Nov. ![]() How does the rise of EVs benefit Plug? Much of their business remains in both the materials handling and stationary power end markets. That is to say, the tide of investors diving into stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Nio (NYSE: NIO) has risen all “green vehicle” boats, including Plug Power’s. You can’t deny the “EV bubble” has been the major driver behind this stock’s three-digit moves higher in 2020. What’s behind this irrational valuation? Chalk it up to the “EV Bubble.” But, while this company has a shot at gaining a foothold in that fast-growing market, the jury’s still out whether it’ll manage to gain meaningful market share. Especially given this company stills posts negative operating earnings, and even the most bullish analyst estimates call for sales to remain below $500 million in the coming year. That’s putting the cart before the horse, to say the least. In sho1rt, based on the company’s current enterprise value, or EV, of $7.92 billion, investors are valuing the company at a rich multiple of where results could be, four years out. The company now estimates it’ll have $1.2 billion in sales, and $250 million in annual EBITDA by 2024. But, relative to the company’s ambitious 2024 revenue and EBITDA goals as well.Ī few months back, the company upped its ambitious revenue and EBITDA projections. But, for this Plug, it seems they’ve bought the rumor, and bought again on the news. Typically, investors buy the rumor, and sell the news. This was after the stock’s nearly five-fold rebound off its March lows. ![]() How so? Shares have nearly doubled since September, when it became clear Biden was the heavy favorite to win the White House. But, it wasn’t as if the specter of a more “eco-friendly” administration wasn’t already priced into shares. With President-elect Biden promising to invest $2 trillion into green initiatives, the bull case for Plug Power just got a little bit stronger. PLUG Stock: A Biden Presidency and an Unsustainable Valuation But, for those who missed out on the earlier gains seen this year? Now may not be the time to dive in. That’s not to say we’ll see shares give up their gains anytime soon. With this in mind, it’s debatable whether there’s significant runway ahead of for Plug Power, one of 2020’s best performers on the market.
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